Gold prices edged marginally higher Friday, heading for strong gains in February as safe haven demand was underpinned by increased geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty through the month.
At 08:45 ET (13:45 GMT), Spot gold slipped 0.6% to $5,213.70 an ounce, and gold futures for April slipped 0.8% to $5,233.06/oz.
Spot gold was trading up over 6% in February, having largely rebounded from lows hit at the beginning of the month, after a speculative rally in gold came undone in a matter of days.
Spot prices had fallen as low as $4,600/oz in early February.
Gold heads for solid February gains
Geopolitical tensions over Iran were a key driver of gold’s rebound, as Washington deployed more ships to the Middle East and threatened military action if Tehran did not accept a nuclear deal.
Talks between Iran and the U.S. concluded this week with no deal being reached. But both sides did commit to more discussions in the coming weeks, spurring some optimism over an eventual nuclear deal.
Heightened uncertainty over the U.S. economy also drove gold’s gains, especially after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling struck down most of President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
Trump had responded by announcing new tariffs under a different legal framework, and threatened more levies, keeping markets on edge over more economic disruptions from the levies.
Bernstein lifts long-term gold outlook
Brokerage firm Bernstein has sharply lifted its long-term gold outlook, arguing that sustained institutional demand and favorable macro conditions could push the yellow metal significantly higher by the end of the decade.
Bernstein now forecasts gold reaching $4,800 per ounce in 2026 and climbing to $6,100 by 2030.
The update reflects a new analytical framework centered on net demand from central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the expected impact of U.S. rate cuts.
“Recently, gold demand has been primarily driven by central bank purchase and ETF flows,” Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett said in a note.
Central bank purchases, while moderating in 2025, are still well above pre-2022 levels. Survey data also points to continued accumulation, with 95% of central banks expecting global gold reserves to increase over the next year and 73% anticipating a reduced share of U.S. dollar reserves over five years.
ETF flows, meanwhile, are seen as the “swing” factor in institutional demand. Brackett highlighted that holdings have risen strongly since mid-2024 and that ETFs can act as a pro-cyclical force, amplifying price moves when inflows accelerate.
Copper helped by China demand
Other precious metals advanced on Friday and were set for a strong performance in February.
Spot silver rose 5.6% to $91.825/oz and was up more than 6% this month, while spot platinum surged 6.7% to $2,389.10/oz and was over 8% in February.
Among industrial metals, copper prices rose slightly on Friday and were nursing a mildly positive performance in February, as markets awaited more cues on China, the world’s largest importer.
Benchmark copper futures on the London Metals Exchange rose 1% to $13,434.0 a ton, and were trading up over 2% this month.
COMEX copper futures rose 1.4% to $6.0883 a pound and were up 3% this month.
Copper’s muted performance in February was largely driven by buyers keeping to the sidelines amid China’s Lunar New Year holiday, which saw Mainland markets closed for over a week.
ANZ analysts noted that China’s copper inventories had built up more than expected during the break, as had global copper stockpiles, amid mining and trade disruptions.
But with China markets having reopened this week, focus was squarely on more buying activities in the country. Copper demand is expected to rise rapidly in the coming quarters as the artificial intelligence buildout accelerates.
Source : investing.com